Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.