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Just two days before the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just the winner overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of votes that came in later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where Cuomo would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained half a million votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year backed the progressive now. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass 50%. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained many Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. So I don’t know if there were major surprises on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.