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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|