From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”